The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs hosted a launch event for David Shambaugh’s latest book, “Breaking the Engagement: How China Won & Lost America.”
Shambaugh, B.A. ’77, is the Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science and International Affairs and the founding director of the Elliott School’s China Policy Program.
As an internationally recognized scholar and award-winning author on contemporary China and the international relations of Asia, Shambaugh has authored 35 books, including 13 single-authored monographs (several of which have won awards). He served on the U.S. Department of State and the National Security Council during the Carter administration. Over his distinguished career, he has also been a consultant to governments, universities, corporations, investment funds and numerous research institutions. He currently serves on multiple editorial boards and has received fellowships and grants from institutions such as the Fulbright Program, the Ford Foundation, the Wilson Center and the Smith Richardson Foundation.
Elliott School Dean Alyssa Ayres opened the event by highlighting Shambaugh’s contributions to the field and the significance of his work. She noted that his book was named one of “Foreign Policy” magazine’s most anticipated books of 2025 and praised its in-depth analysis of the evolution of United States-China relations.
“I think it's an understatement to say that Professor Shambaugh brings unique expertise to the subject of U.S.-China engagement,” Ayres said. “And it's no exaggeration to say that he has authored a groundbreaking analysis of the U.S.-China relationship. In this book, you'll find an expert and comprehensive overview of U.S. engagement with China across decades and an explanation of how that engagement disintegrated into the competition that dominates today's headlines.”
In his book, Shambaugh traces the rise and fall of the U.S. engagement strategy with China, arguing that its collapse stems from a mix of China’s assertive actions and America’s paternalistic expectations. He said in his many years of studying and teaching the history of U.S.-China relations, a question he’s grappled with is the deep, underlying drivers of the fluctuating U.S.-China relationship over time.
“From amity to enmity, back to amity, to enmity, and the cycle repeats seemingly endlessly,” Shambaugh said. “That’s the historical puzzle.”
The more contemporary puzzle, he explained, is how the four decades of American engagement with China, in which the American and Chinese governments and societies became deeply intertwined with each other, and bilateral cooperation was the norm, have changed dramatically over the past decade.
Shambaugh said engagement gave way to comprehensive competition, where frictions and systemic disengagement have become the overriding characteristics of the relationship. He also noted that China's previously positive image among the American public has taken a nosedive since about 2012. He cited data that by 2024, more than 80% of the American public today viewed China unfavorably.
“So, the answer to these puzzles and the basic argument of the book is that over four decades, from the 1980s through the 2010s, China won over America through its generally reformist domestic policies and its foreign policies, which coincided with the premises and expectations of the American engagement strategy towards China,” Shambaugh said.
Shambaugh argued that the U.S.-China relationship was shaped by a convergence between American expectations, which he said is the independent variable, and Chinese behavior, the dependent variable. When China’s policies aligned with American expectations, cooperation was possible. But when China did not conform to American expectations, friction followed.
He also argued that, ironically, the deeper each country’s engagement and presence with the other, the greater the suspicion and conflict, which is counter to the liberal assumption that deeper ties would foster stronger cooperation.
Around 2010, American actors in China, including nonprofit organizations, scholars, businesses and government officials began noticing increased obstacles to their work.
“I too personally experienced this as a Senior Fulbright Scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences that very year,” Shambaugh said. When Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, these obstacles dramatically increased, and China adopted a more assertive, securitized approach both domestically and internationally.
“Moreover, beginning about a decade ago, China stepped up its own influence and interference activities in this country and other countries,” Shambaugh said, “which began to negatively impact American society and violate American laws, impact American states, universities, civil society, media and national security.”
As a result, the American government responded by securitizing the relationship, and these mutual actions significantly accelerated the decline in relations. And over the past decade, China has “lost” America, Shambaugh argued.
Robert Sutter, a professor of practice of international affairs at the Elliott School and an expert on East Asia, shared his thoughts on Shambaugh’s latest book.
“We are so fortunate here at GW to have on our faculty Professor David Shambaugh. He's a world-renowned specialist on China, the United States and East Asia. In my view, he's the specialist best qualified to write an authoritative assessment of this important development in the U.S.-China relationship,” Sutter said.
Sutter emphasized that Shambaugh brings not only academic depth but also firsthand experience, having been closely involved with many of the key actors and institutions that shaped both the rise and fall of the engagement strategy.
Sutter highlighted the book’s major contributions, including its systematic breakdown of the engagement strategy’s collapse and the rise of a counter-China coalition in the United States.
Sutter said no other work has captured this topic with such breadth and detail.
“As Professor Shambaugh explains, America needs a carefully thought-out and well-executed strategy that defends and advances American interests in the face of Chinese ambitions,” Sutter said.
