Hurricane Milton made landfall on Florida's west coast Wednesday night. The region has experienced extreme flooding, deadly tornadoes and millions have been left without power. At least 14 people have died as a result of the storm.
The huge storm hit the state as some communities, like those around the Tampa Bay area, were still reeling from Hurricane Helene, which occurred less than two weeks ago and killed more than 200 people across six states.
As climate change continues to alter weather patterns, hurricanes, tornadoes and other natural disasters like wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense.
Lisa Benton-Short, a professor of geography, global equity and social justice at the George Washington University, spoke with GW Today about how climate change is fueling these extreme weather events and what communities can do to prepare for a future where extreme weather events may become more common.
Q: Why are we seeing a trend of stronger hurricanes in recent years? Is climate change a factor?
A: Climate change is certainly impacting the stability of climate systems, including how and when hurricanes form. Hurricanes form in the presence of warm air and water temperatures.
Climate change has been increasing ocean temperatures and air temperatures. This can result in larger, stronger hurricanes because the warmer the ocean waters, the more energy the storm can absorb since warmer air and water temperatures allow more evaporation of water vapor into the atmosphere.
There is also a very predictable geography to hurricanes because they need warmer ocean temperatures, they tend to form in parts of the Atlantic Ocean along the equator. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a band of thunderstorms and showers that form near the equator where the trade winds of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres meet. The ITCZ is a major factor in the Atlantic hurricane season and can help create the thunderstorms that develop into hurricanes. The Gulf of Mexico is even more shallow than the Atlantic, so it also warms up quicker and to even warmer ocean water temperatures. This is why hurricanes that reach the Gulf of Mexico can intensify, as Milton did.
Q: What are the anticipated humanitarian impacts of this type of storm?
A: The impacts are many, including loss of life due to damage from falling debris or collapsing structures or if someone is caught in a flood. Also, there is damage to homes, damage to infrastructures such as roads, electrical systems, water and sanitation systems.
The more our cities expand in the hurricane zones, the more people, buildings and infrastructure are at risk. At the same time, we can predict and monitor hurricanes more accurately than ever before, so we can alert people to the risk so they can take precautions or evacuate. As a result, the loss of life in the United States tends to be small, but the cost of recovery and rebuilding is very high because of the damage to buildings and infrastructure.
Q: Is there a chance other natural disasters such as tornadoes and wildfires will also increase in frequency and intensity due to changing climate patterns?
A: Yes, tornadoes may also increase with climate change. This is because warmer, more humid conditions can lead to more instability in the atmosphere, which in turn may create the conditions that produce tornadoes. This tends to occur in the summer but ends in the fall. We may see a longer season for tornadoes, where the “season” may extend beyond the summer.
Wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense, particularly in regions that experience extreme dryness during the summer months, which creates ideal conditions for fires to ignite and spread.
In the U.S., states such as Colorado have seen an increase in wildfires.
In addition, wildfires are increasing in size and intensity, with some experts now calling them "firestorms.” Increased wildfires are occurring not just in the U.S. but around the world. For the last two summers, Canada has had massive wildfires in its remote areas, something that has not happened to that degree before.
Q: Hurricane Helene struck mountainous communities in western North Carolina that were hundreds of miles inland and previously considered safe from extreme weather. What does this indicate about changing weather patterns and the impacts of climate change, particularly in areas that historically don’t experience extreme storms.
A: As hurricanes increase in size and intensity, all that water they absorb needs to go somewhere: down to Earth. We've seen several recent hurricanes move slowly once they make landfall, and this can result in an enormous amount of rainfall occurring in a given area.
As that area absorbs rainfall, it eventually saturates and the grounds can't absorb any more rain, so water begins running towards rivers and creeks. Hurricane Helene's rainfall was torrential in western North Carolina, with some areas receiving 8-16 inches of rain in a day or two! This amount of water overwhelmed the ground's ability to soak it up. As the streams and creeks filled up quickly, the water moved down the mountains, (it does this anyway), but the amount of water was enormous. Many communities lived in proximity to the river. The result was catastrophic as very quickly moving water created floods without enough time for people to prepare or evacuate. That is also one reason why the death toll in the mountains was so high, such events are not typical in the region. But with climate change, nothing is typical anymore.
Q: What should communities understand about preparing for increasingly intense weather events and how can individuals develop effective emergency plans?
A: Communities need to plan for the possibility that natural disasters they’ve experienced before will now be more intense.
Communities that haven't experienced tornadoes, wildfires or hurricanes now need to look more carefully at the possibility that with a shifting climate, these disasters could occur.
Generally, the political discourse on climate change has reached a consensus that climate change is happening, compared to the three decades between 1990 to 2020 when many politicians denied climate change. Although we hear less about climate deniers, we still lack the political will to invest in resources for communities that can prepare them to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change. That's the next big change that needs to occur. We can agree now that climate change is happening, but we need to commit to resources to help communities.