By James Irwin
If Donald Trump, like the last few weeks of summer, was going to simply fade away, it would have happened already—after his comments about Mexican immigrants and crime, or his feud with Fox News host Megyn Kelly. That it hasn't is a telling sign of both the effectiveness of his tactics and the frustration of the American electorate, according to a panel of political experts convened Wednesday at the George Washington University.
Speaking at a School of Media and Public Affairs event kicking off the fall semester, the panel of current and former SMPA fellows and National Council members—including former GW student and "Meet The Press" host Chuck Todd—tried to explain the effect Mr. Trump is having on U.S. politics.
“Who would have ever thought that you could insult people, switch positions and do anything you wanted to do and rise in the polls?” said Paul Wilson, a veteran of six presidential campaigns. “We see Donald Trump breaking all of the rules. How can you get away with that? He’s agenda setting. He’s telling the public how to make a decision about the presidency.”
Throwing away the rulebook
Mr. Trump, the panelists agreed, is tapping into an unhappy electorate.
“What has the establishment given us over the last 20 years?” said Frank Farenkopf, former chair of the Republican Party and current co-chair of the Commission on Presidential Debates. “Sex scandals, financial scandals, two un-won wars, an economic collapse, a tepid recovery, not even pretending anymore to try to control our own borders. The polling is an indication of [American] frustration: ‘In your face, Republicans; in your face, Democrats; in your face, professional politicians.’ And that’s why Trump, [Ben] Carson, Carly Fiorina, and [Bernie] Sanders on the Democratic side have moved as far as they have.”
Mr. Trump stands out. The panel, even in admitting they spent more time on him than anyone else, couldn’t stop bringing the conversation back to America's most unconventional candidate. He dominates a given day’s news coverage just by what he tweets or what he signs, said Cornell Belcher, a former pollster for President Barack Obama, and that says as much about the voter and the media as it does the candidate.
“Our culture is being eaten by reality television ethos,” Mr. Belcher said. “Those people driving that ethos and ratings—the same people making the Kardashians rich beyond belief—those are American voters. [Trump] is taking all those tactics that have worked very well for him in reality television and—guess what—they’re also working really well in politics.”
Mr. Todd likened the tactics to that of a spread offense in football.
“He talks all the time,” Mr. Todd said. “He makes a gaffe at 9 a.m. and he calls another show at 9:05. Your opponents are all over the place. They’re trying to tackle you on this issue, and you’re over here running for the end zone on another issue.”
It’s making life difficult for his competitors in the Republican primary, said Amy Walter, national editor of The Cook Political Report.
“It’s fascinating to watch the other candidates around him,” she said. “It’s like watching little kids on a playground when that one kid comes in and starts doing something differently and winning—whatever game it is—and all the kids that have been playing for a long time say, ‘It’s not fair, you’re not playing by the rules. Stop, we have rules and you’re not playing by them.’”
Shades of ’68
Some of the most thought-provoking questions Wednesday night that steered the conversation away from Mr. Trump came from students in the capacity crowd at Jack Morton Auditorium. One asked about comparisons between the 2016 and 1968 elections, drawing the parallels of race riots and a lack of mobility for the middle class and working poor.
Mr. Todd and Mr. Farenkopf both said they could see those connections. Mr. Sanders, they said, is a reboot of former Democratic presidential candidate Eugene McCarthy. Mr. Trump, Mr. Todd noted, is like a modern George Wallace in that he taps into a desire among voters to protect the interests of native-born or established citizens against those of immigrants.
“It’s an interesting comparison,” said Mara Liasson, National Public Radio political correspondent. “I don’t think it’s as convulsive as ’68. But I do think we’re in a populist moment, which means it’s volatile and unpredictable. Trump is the classic populist who combines nativism and economic populism. He wants to get rid of the hedge fund guy’s tax loophole but he also wants to build a big wall.”
Clinton and Sanders … and Biden?
Another question from the crowd asked whether Vice President Joe Biden would enter the Democratic field, and whether he would have a chance against Hillary Clinton.
“If [Clinton] loses New Hampshire and Iowa—which I don’t think she’s going to do—I think that’s going to be a strong case for Biden to get into the race,” Mr. Belcher said. “I think you’ll have people pushing Biden into the race.”
Mr. Farenkopf provided a second scenario for a Biden campaign—and a possible path for the vice president to topple Ms. Clinton for the Democratic nomination. The key, he said, is with African-American, Hispanic and Asian voters, who were the key to Mr. Obama’s 2012 general election victory.
“If [Clinton] loses support—if there starts to be a fracturing among those constituents—then [Biden] can get in,” Mr. Farenkopf said. “And he’s very well loved. I think there’s a great deal of affection for him with the death of his son, the way he handled it and the way he’s done his job as vice president. He’s a good guy. And one thing I’ve learned—I’ve done 19 presidential debates and seven vice presidential debates—the American people want to like their president.”
