After Mitt Romney’s razor-thin victory in Iowa, the nation’s eyes are on tomorrow’s primary in New Hampshire, as the remaining five GOP presidential candidates battle for votes. With the South Carolina and Florida primaries later this month, it’s likely a candidate will be able to shore up the nomination in a matter of weeks.
Associate Professor of Political Science John Sides spoke with George Washington Today about how the GOP candidates are faring so far, the role of the primaries and who has the best chance of entering the White House next year.
Q: What have been the major surprises of the current GOP presidential race?
A: I think it’s been surprising to see candidates with minimal qualifications (Donald Trump, Herman Cain) or who are controversial within the party (Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich) experience “boomlets” of support. It’s normal for parties to spend some time coalescing around a nominee, but I wouldn’t have expected these candidates to have the success they did (however temporary).
Q: We’ve seen the forerunner in the GOP race change almost monthly from Bachmann to Perry to Cain and Gingrich. What accounts for so much volatility? Is this unprecedented?
A: I can’t think of an earlier primary with this much volatility. I think it reflects several factors. One is that Romney, while he garnered the most endorsements from party leaders, still wasn’t the first choice of others within the party. But they didn’t necessarily have strong opinions about the alternatives, which meant that events or new information could really affect their views.
So, for example, Perry enters the race, seems formidable, generates a lot of positive press and sees his poll numbers shoot up. But then he performs poorly in the debates and sees his poll numbers drop. Cain performs well in the debates and seems to have charisma and solid conservative credentials, but then the allegations about sexual harassment, sexual assault and infidelity derail his candidacy. Santorum’s surge in Iowa came right after the endorsement by a prominent evangelical leader, which was accompanied by a lot of robocalls to Iowa voters informing them of the endorsement.
In general, primaries see greater volatility in preferences than do general elections because the candidates are often unfamiliar and because voters cannot rely on their own partisan loyalty to choose among them.
Q: While Romney is considered the frontrunner, he only won in Iowa by a slim margin. Does this reveal anything about the Republican Party?
A: I think it demonstrates the natural cleavages within any large political party: Not everyone agrees on every issue or weighs every issue the same amount, and that leads them to support different candidates. In addition, it’s early in the process, and the Republican Party hasn’t fully coalesced behind a candidate.
But the parties do coalesce behind candidates. Take 2008, for example. There were competitive and divisive primaries on both sides, but in November about 90 percent of Democrat and Republican voters voted for their party’s candidate.
Q: Jon Huntsman skipped Iowa to focus on the New Hampshire primary. Is it strategic for some candidates to skip caucuses or primaries?
A: If a candidate doesn't have much money and believes he or she has limited appeal to voters in a particular state, it can be strategic to skip a primary or caucus. The problem, however, is that the earlier caucuses and primaries can provide momentum for candidates who do better than expected, and this may mean that the candidate who skipped one of those events gets left behind. Romney’s win in Iowa makes it even less likely that Huntsman can gain ground in New Hampshire.
Q: Are there any significant ways that primaries have changed over time?
A: The most significant way is simply that they became the means by which delegates were chosen to the national party conventions, thereby giving voters a direct say over who the nominee was. Before the 1972 election, primaries were largely just symbolic contests that candidates sometimes ignored entirely. Most of the decision-making was by party leaders in the proverbial smoke-filled backrooms of the convention. Party leaders can still shape the field and help anoint a nominee, but the voice of voters is louder now than before.
Q: When are we likely to know who the Republican candidate will be?
A: It depends on the next few primaries. But I think it’s likely that Romney will be the odds-on favorite by the end of the month.
Q: Which Republican candidate do you think has the best shot at the White House?
A: The polls and some forecasting models suggest that a more moderate candidate, like Romney or Huntsman, has the best shot at defeating Barack Obama.