With less than two months until Election Day, Tuesday’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump stands as a pivotal moment. This high-stakes face-off has the potential to shift voter sentiment and influence the trajectory of both campaigns in the lead-up to Nov. 5.
Todd Belt, director of the political management program at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management, shares his expert analysis with GW Today on the key issues, strategies and risks that could define the debate—and ultimately, the rest of the campaign season.
The debate, hosted by ABC News, will begin at 9 p.m. EDT and last 90 minutes, including two commercial breaks. It will be moderated by hosts Linsey Davis and David Muir.
Q: What are your expectations for the upcoming presidential debate?
A: I expect that we’re going to see both candidates get grilled by each other and the moderators. For the most part, both campaigns have been very light on policy specifics. However, the candidates need to convince voters how and why voters’ lives would be better under their administration. The moderators will demand more specifics from the candidates. I expect that the candidates will attack each other for flipping on issues as they have each moved to the center on various issues.
Q: Which key issues do you expect to dominate the discussion on stage?
A: Usually, we have different themes for different debates, including an entire debate on foreign policy. But it looks like this will be the only debate between the two nominees (but there will be a vice presidential debate). That means all issues are on the table. The economy is always the most important issue to voters in any election. This time is no different. However, there are both good aspects to the economy (such as low unemployment and growth) and bad (inflation). There are also a number of ancillary issues that each candidate thinks plays to their own strengths and their opponent’s weakness. For Trump, this is crime and immigration. For Harris, this is abortion and the threat Trump poses to democracy.
Q: In what ways do you think the candidates will address their records in office, and how might they frame their accomplishments?
A: Trump will claim to have had the “greatest economy ever” and try to connect Harris to Biden’s failures on the economy and the Afghanistan withdrawal. Harris will try to claim some of the more popular accomplishments of the Biden administration but will also attack Trump’s record during his term in office. Harris will also go beyond her experience as vice president and discuss her accomplishments as a prosecutor and attorney general. This will help her take away the crime critique from Trump.
Q: How do you think the candidates will balance appealing to their base while also trying to reach undecided or swing voters during the debate?
A: This is always the difficult balancing act. The base wants to hear principled policy stances and the undecideds can be easily frightened by policy detail—focusing more on perceived losses than gains. It’s really a difficult balance, and neither candidate has done it well so far, resulting in each of them being accused of flipping on various issues (such as abortion, fracking and immigration).
Q: What are the potential risks and rewards for each candidate in this high-stakes debate?
A: It is often said that a single debate cannot win the election, but it can lose it. We certainly saw that with Biden in the last debate. Other examples include Ford in 1976, Dukakis in 1988 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. People know what they are getting with a Trump presidency because they have already had one term with him serving. A Harris administration is still relatively an unknown, so she has much more to lose.
Q: How might the candidates’ debate performances impact their campaign momentum going forward?
A: Harris has all the momentum right now, and Trump is at a loss for how to counter her surge. He will try a number of different lines of attack to see what might work for the rest of the campaign. Trump is desperate to turn things around, and he can’t stand the idea that people see this race slipping away from him. This is why the focus on crowd size has really gotten under his skin. If Harris can find more things that irritate him and distract him from running at least a somewhat disciplined campaign, that could really be a benefit to her.
