President Joe Biden will deliver his first State of the Union address on Tuesday at a time marked by instability at home and abroad. What might we expect the president to say?
Todd Belt, Graduate School of Political Management professor and director of the political management program, shared his thoughts with GW Today.
What should people expect, in general, from President Biden's first SOTU address?
He will have a message of common purpose and unity in the face of our national challenges. He will highlight that the nation is strong economically and coming out of the pandemic (as presidents always say: “the state of our nation is strong!”). But he will also assert that Democrats and Republicans need to work together to resolve the two big challenges: inflation and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking historically, is there some way that a first SOTU address tends to differ from the ones delivered later in a president's term?
There will be a laundry list of accomplishments and promises kept. Many view Biden’s first year as largely a failure, so he will use the opportunity to burnish his accomplishments over the past year. He will then turn toward the challenges of the coming year and signal a need to work together to address them.
Which topics do you expect the president to highlight?
The war in Ukraine will be a big one. Nothing unites people behind a president more than a foreign policy crisis. There is an old saying that “politics stops at the water’s edge.” While that has never been completely true and certainly isn’t today, it gives the president an opportunity to plead for national unity. It also makes it hard for his detractors to deny him that unity. In that regard, I expect he will call for more military and humanitarian support for Ukraine.
I also think that he will highlight the most popular programs that he has failed to secure in his “Build Back Better” legislation. These programs include universal pre-school, the child tax credit, home health care for seniors and persons with disabilities, allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices, Medicare coverage of hearing, subsidies to cover the Medicaid coverage gap in 12 states that have not expanded it and expanding Affordable Care Act credits.
An important, bipartisan and under-the-radar policy is the COMPETES Act, which would improve U.S. competitiveness in many high-tech areas, including semiconductors and microchips. This would make the United States less dependent upon China for those items, and this is a policy that has broad bipartisan support. Biden needs Congress to finish work on this, so I think he will address it.
If you were advising Biden on SOTU strategy, what would you tell him?
No amount of telling people that the economy has gotten better (which it has in terms of growth and unemployment) can change what they see and feel when they visit the grocery store checkout line or the gas pump. It is probable that inflation will get worse in the short run as the United States gets some economic blowback from the economic sanctions against Russia. Biden needs to prepare people for this, but he also needs to convince people that he has a plan to reduce inflation in the long run.
Despite some disappointing popularity ratings, the Biden administration can boast of some solid achievements. Are there high points you think he shouldn't fail to stress?
The obvious ones are the Rescue Act and the Infrastructure Act. While the benefits of the Rescue Act have largely already been felt, the Infrastructure Act will take some time to have an impact on the economy, so Biden will need to “re-sell” the importance of it to the American people. Another high point is decline of the restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic. The recent CDC decision to limit mask wearing is welcome news and can help the president signal to Americans that we are not still adrift in economic, educational and social stagnation.
Anything else we should watch for?
We should carefully watch the “response” speech from Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) and the Republican response (from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds). While it is usual to have a response from the opposition party, it is very unusual (although not unprecedented) for a response from the president’s party. While Tlaib represents the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which has been very supportive of Biden’s initiatives, this response could be problematic for the president. Biden has a low approval rating and the Democrats have been perceived as unable to govern effectively, so it is possible that Tlaib’s response will just give more credence to that notion.
