POLITICO-GW Battleground Poll: Positive Attitudes about Nation's Direction on Increase


February 26, 2012

President Obama’s job approval rating among voters has significantly increased over the past four months to 53 percent, according to a new POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll released today. Last November, the president’s favorable approval rating was at 44 percent.

In addition, overall positive attitudes have increased among voters. While 59 percent of voters still believe the country is on the wrong track, this number has improved from the 75 percent who felt that way in November.

“Several months of better economic news is the reason why we see a sharp drop in the number of voters who believe the nation is on the wrong track,” said Christopher Arterton, a GW professor of political management. “Although 59 percent is a substantial majority, the poll also finds a 17 percent rise in those saying the country is moving in the right direction.”

The American public continues to report that the economy and jobs are the most pressing issues. When asked which party will handle the economy better, Republicans narrowly beat Democrats, 49 to 45 percent—just outside the 3 percent margin of error. When asked about jobs, the parties are statistically tied, with 46 percent of voters saying Republicans would best handle the issue, and 48 percent saying Democrats would do better.

Mitt Romney continues to be the presumptive Republican nominee, with 56 percent of Republicans saying he is the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election. Rick Santorum came in a distant second at 28 percent. Romney’s numbers have increased eight points since November’s Battleground Poll, when he was at 48 percent.

Dr. Arterton noted that President Obama’s recent polling increase may be a temporary result of positive job growth and other administration successes.

“The poll results suggest that, if the general election were held today, President Obama would beat either Romney or Santorum. This brightening picture for Obama should be viewed with caution,” he said. “The data were collected in the immediate aftermath of reports of job growth and a congressional victory for the administration on payroll taxes. There may well be a ‘halo effect’ that could disappear if the good news and small victories don't continue.”

The poll also investigated demographic differences in voters’ attitudes about the future and found significant variation by race. Forty-seven percent of African American voters and 50 percent of Hispanic voters believe the next generation will be better off economically than the current generation, while only 25 percent of white voters feel the same way.

The POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll is a nationally recognized series of surveys conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. The GW Global Media Institute, affiliated with the Graduate School of Political Management and the School of Media and Public Affairs, serves as the university’s home for the partnership.

GW’s Gelman Library houses the data archive of the survey results, dating back more than two decades. The poll, which is distinguished from other surveys by its presentation of separate analyses from these top pollsters representing both sides of the aisle, surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationwide Feb. 19 through Feb. 22, and yields a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.