POLITICO-GW Battleground Poll Examines 2012 Election, Congress


November 16, 2011

President Barack Obama will face steep competition this election cycle, according to more than 1,000 surveyed registered voters in the latest POLITICO-George Washington Battleground Poll.

Polled nationwide Nov. 6 to Nov. 9, voters are split 44 percent to 43 percent on whether President Obama or a yet-to-be-determined Republican presidential nominee will be the next president.

First conducted in 1991, the POLITICO- George Washington Battleground is a nationally recognized series of surveys that offer the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle. The bipartisan poll is sponsored by George Washington’s Graduate School of Political Management and is developed by research firms Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group.

According to the poll, voters would choose President Obama over Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney by 48 percent to 43 percent, and Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain by 49 percent to 40 percent.

“Asking voters to choose between Obama and any Republican candidate produces a straight pro-Obama versus anti-Obama response,” said Christopher Arterton, George Washington University professor of political management. “Yet the fact that neither of the two Republican frontrunners do as well against Obama as the generic candidate speaks to the difficulties Republican voters are having coalescing around a single nominee.”

Forty-eight percent of Americans believe that Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination regardless of which candidate they personally plan to vote for.

Voters were also asked to share their opinions on Congress. Eighty-three percent of Americans disapprove of Congress’ effectiveness; however, when asked specifically how their own member of Congress is doing, 46 percent responded in approval, while only 39 percent disapproved of their representative’s job performance.

Voters also rated their most important concerns for Congress, with the economy at 21 percent, the deficit and government spending at 19 percent, and jobs at 18 percent.