Smart policies addressing road transport emissions could save 1.9 million lives and prevent 1.4 million new children’s asthma cases worldwide by 2040, preventing 310 premature deaths and 230 new children’s asthma cases daily over the next 15 years, according to a new study from the George Washington University, the International Council on Clean Transportation and the University of Colorado Boulder.
The study, "Global health benefits of policies to reduce on-road vehicle pollution through 2040,” provides a detailed analysis of how different policies could improve health outcomes across more than 180 countries and 13,000 urban areas.
“Our research demonstrates that policy choices made today will have profound implications for public health outcomes through 2040 and beyond," said Lingzhi Jin, lead author from the International Council on Clean Transportation. "The data clearly shows that implementing complementary policy measures—particularly Euro 6/VI standards alongside an electric vehicle transition—delivers substantially greater health benefits than single-policy approaches."
The study assesses health impacts from various policy measures, including Euro 6/VI-equivalent emission standards, Euro 7-equivalent standards, an accelerated transition to electric vehicles and accelerated fleet renewal. Researchers also examined how combining these policies with clean electricity generation for electric vehicles would maximize benefits.
The study found that road transport emissions are responsible for an estimated 252,000 new asthma cases in children in 2023, representing about one-fifth of all new asthma cases in children linked to nitrogen dioxide pollution.
It also reveals concerning disparities in health impacts across regions and age groups. Children under 5 years old are projected to account for 50% of avoidable new asthma cases in children from nitrogen dioxide exposure, while making up only 25% of all children. Similarly, adults aged 65 and older account for 70% of global avoidable years of life lost while making up just 20% of the total adult population.
Without further policy action, researchers said, health disparities across regions will widen significantly. The study projects premature deaths, years of life lost and new asthma cases in children from road transport emissions will approximately double in the least developed countries from 2023-2040, while decreasing in the most developed countries.
Combining Euro 6/VI standards with electric vehicle policies is highly complementary, avoiding an additional 323,000 premature deaths and 419,000 new asthma cases in children globally compared to focusing on electric vehicles alone. And ensuring that electric vehicles don’t increase electricity grid emissions could prevent an additional 212,000 premature deaths and 98,000 new asthma cases in children compared to implementing vehicle-related policies alone.
"Our research reveals an important opportunity to improve health for kids and adults by reducing harmful pollution in the air they breathe," said co-author Susan Anenberg, professor and chair of environmental and occupational health at the GW Milken Institute School of Public Health. "Vehicle tailpipe pollution contributes to asthma development in children and increases cardiovascular and respiratory risk among adults. We urgently need coordinated global action to ensure all communities, especially those most at risk, benefit from cleaner transportation."
"A strength of this study is our ability to assess policy impacts at a granular level across the entire globe," said co-author Daven Henze, a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder. "By combining advanced atmospheric modeling with high-resolution satellite data, we've created a powerful tool that shows not just where pollution is concentrated, but how different policy choices could improve health outcomes in specific communities, down to the square kilometer. This represents a significant advancement in our ability to guide informed policy decisions."
The research also highlights the special vulnerability of urban populations to road transport-related air pollution. Urban areas account for two-thirds of avoidable new children's asthma cases globally despite housing only one-third of the world’s children.
"The evidence from this study is crystal clear: implementing a strategic combination of emission standards, electric vehicle policies, accelerated fleet renewal and clean electricity generation will save nearly 2 million lives globally over the next 15 years", said Sheila Watson, deputy director of FIA Foundation, a co-founder of the work. "Policymakers must act on this evidence now in order to protect public health. This isn't just about environmental protection—it's also about saving lives and improving children's health on a massive scale."
The full report is available here.
