Piecing Together the Poll Puzzle

mark penn
The GW Global Media Institute and POLITICO co-hosted an election eve event in the Jack Morton Auditorium on Monday, November 1 previewing the midterm elections and analyzing the results of our recent POLITICO-GW Battleground Polls.The Hatchette, GW Radio
November 03, 2010

Analysts from the POLITICO-GW Battleground Poll made predictions about the 2010 midterm elections at GW.

The makeup of the nation’s Congress looks a bit different than it did four years ago, thanks to some shakeups at the polls Nov. 2.

But it wasn’t all a surprise, at least not to pollsters Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas, who came to GW’s Jack Morton Auditorium Nov. 1 to discuss possible election outcomes with POLITICO’s Jim VandeHei and GW’s Chris Arterton. The event was co-sponsored by GW’s College Democrats and College Republicans.

Republicans received control of the House with an approximate 60-seat gain, while Democrats are projected to hold onto their Senate majority by just a few seats.

At Monday’s event, Ms. Lake, a Democratic pollster with Lake Research Partners, accurately projected that Democrats would hold onto the Senate, and predicted that while Democrats would lose seats in the House, reports of sweeping party losses were exaggerated.

“Just like the reports of the demise of the Republicans were overstated in 2008, I think the report of the demise of the Democrats is vastly overstated as well,” said Ms. Lake.

Mr. Goeas, a Republican pollster with The Tarrance Group, accurately forecasted that the Republicans would make huge gains in the House, while acknowledging the Senate race would be more competitive.

“This is the type of election where anything close goes our way, just like in 2006 when anything close went to the Democrat direction,” he said.

Junior Will Frey, vice chairman of the GW College Republicans, said the POLITCO-GW poll lends “valuable insight” into the questions voters ask before casting their ballot.

Sophomore Adam Savader, a new GW transfer, attended Monday’s event because he wants to “take advantage of every political event he can.” Mr. Savader even made it onto CSPAN, which he tweeted to his followers. 

“The moderator knew how to ask all the right questions, and each member of the panel brought unique perspectives and respectfully shared them with their fellow panelists while offering points of view I did not hear anywhere else,” he said. “I am so grateful to both Politico and GW for the new perspective… and I cannot wait to attend the Midterm Exam event on Thursday!”

The Midterm Exam event on Nov. 4 in GW’s Jack Moron Auditorium will feature political strategists Mark Penn and Karen Hughes to discuss the implications of the midterm elections. NBC News award-winning correspondent Mike Viqueira will moderate.

The POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll is a nationally recognized, bipartisan series of surveys conducted by Ms. Lake and Mr. Goeas. It is unique in its presentation of separate analyses from top pollsters representing both sides of the aisle.

The George Washington University became a sponsor of the Battleground Poll in 2004. POLITICO became a joint partner in September. The GW Global Media Institute, affiliated with both GW’s Graduate School of Political Management and the School of Media and Public Affairs, serves as the university’s administrative home for the partnership and GW’s Gelman Library houses the data archive of the survey results dating back more than two decades.

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