President Barack Obama will deliver his first State of the Union address on Tuesday as a second-term president.
George Washington Today talked with John Sides, associate professor of political science, about what he expects the president to discuss—and what he can realistically accomplish in his final years in the White House.
Q: What priorities do you think the president will emphasize in his speech?
A: There will likely be some similarities to his inaugural address, so Obama may discuss issues like climate change, immigration reform and gun control. In addition, the coming sequestration and subsequent need to increase the debt ceiling probably mean that Obama will also discuss fiscal policy and continue to advocate for a “balanced” approach that involves tax increases and spending cuts.
Q: Out of those priorities, which are likely to go to the top of the list—and which do you see Obama realistically accomplishing in the next four years?
A: Fiscal policy is at the top of the list just because there are deadlines looming like the sequestration. It also seems possible for comprehensive immigration reform to pass. There is bipartisan momentum there.
Gun control will be tougher. I wouldn’t expect dramatic reform, but perhaps there could be enough votes for making private gun sales and gun show sales subject to background checks.
Substantive action on climate change is unlikely. I don’t see much that the parties agree on there—beginning with how much human activity is responsible for climate change in the first place.
Q: Compared to previous State of the Union addresses, how do you think this one will differ—given the current political climate and the fact that it’s Obama’s first as a second-term president?
A: Obama has a bit more wind at his back than he had before. The economy has rebounded somewhat, although it’s certainly not growing as fast as we would like. His win in November—which was a big surprise to many Republicans—seems to have emboldened him. And he’s also learned from earlier episodes where bargaining with the GOP came to naught. I think he is more inclined to take tougher positions, believing Republicans will be blamed when no compromise results.
Q: How will it be similar to previous speeches?
A: One potential similarity—and an unfortunate one—is that we’re likely to hear yet more about the need for more economic growth and more jobs. The slow recovery has made mass unemployment an omnipresent issue. At the same time, this may not produce much more action, since the parties disagree sharply on the value of government stimulus.
Q: Have State of the Union addresses historically given us a realistic picture of the year ahead?
A: These addresses give us a good window into the president’s agenda. Whether that agenda translates into actual law is obviously much harder to predict, especially under divided government. Getting things done requires Republican votes, and those are hard to come by in this era of polarized parties. It’s also worth remembering how unexpected events can reorient the political agenda. The Newtown shooting and gun control is a good example. So was the Arab Spring. Obama may end up concluding his presidency with a very different set of challenges than he had when he began his second term.