By James Irwin
Five states hold primary elections Tuesday. But the shape of the Republican presidential field likely hinges on two.
Florida, which will award 99 delegates to the winner of its primary, and Ohio, which will award 66, mark the beginning of the “winner-take-all” segment of the GOP race. Donald Trump (462 delegates) is a little more than one-third of the way to the Republican nomination, followed by Ted Cruz (362 delegates), Marco Rubio (155 delegates) and John Kasich (54 delegates).
A candidate must have at least 1,237 delegates to secure the nomination.
The results in Florida and Ohio could clarify the stretch run to a Trump nomination—or keep the race in its current chaotic state—said Matt Dallek, assistant professor at the Graduate School of Political Management.
The former is starting to look more likely than the latter, he said.
“I think it’s more likely that he does [get to 1,237],” Dr. Dallek said. “He did quite well in Michigan and Mississippi this past Tuesday. I think it suggests that he remains viable.”
The race is far from over, he said. Attack campaigns against Mr. Trump have increased in recent days, especially in Florida and other March 15 primary states.
“I think this is the first sustained ‘air campaign’ against him,” Dr. Dallek said. “We’ll see if it has any material effect on his standing.”
Less than two weeks ago in this space, Dr. Dallek’s colleague, Political Management Program Director Lara Brown, outlined a post-Super Tuesday divide-and-conquer strategy for the field to block Mr. Trump from securing the nomination. That strategy hinged on Sen. Cruz (Texas), Gov. Kasich (Ohio) and Sen. Rubio (Fla.) all staying in the race as the top alternative candidate in certain states.
There are four possible outcomes in Florida and Ohio this week:
Scenario 1: Trump wins both states
This would boost Mr. Trump past the 600-delegate mark regardless of the results in the three other March 15 states—Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina—and essentially mark the end of the Kasich and Rubio campaigns, Dr. Dallek said.
“Then I think there’s real pressure for everybody but Ted Cruz to get out, and then you’ll have a Ted Cruz-Donald Trump faceoff,” he said.
He sees that as advantageous to Mr. Trump. The upcoming calendar is not Cruz-friendly, Dr. Dallek said. The states voting in the spring and early summer tend to be more moderate, outside of Sen. Cruz’s home region and lack evangelical voters.
“If Trump were to win Illinois, Ohio and Florida, it is hard to see how he is stopped,” Dr. Dallek said.
Scenario 2: Trump wins Florida, loses Ohio
Mr. Kasich is in a tight race with Mr. Trump in his home state. If he were to win Ohio, and Sen. Rubio were to lose Florida to Mr. Trump, it would create a three-man race, Dr. Dallek said.
“I think if Rubio loses Florida I don’t see how he stays in—the pressure grows acute on him to leave,” he said.
No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio in the general election. A win at home would allow Mr. Kasich to lay claim to the party’s most important swing state. He would benefit from the Republican Party’s demonstrated disdain for Sen. Cruz and possibly from support leaving Sen. Rubio’s campaign, Dr. Dallek said.
“If Rubio were to leave, that should theoretically mean some of the support—including the money—flows to Kasich,” Dr. Dallek said.
Scenario 3: Trump loses Florida, wins Ohio
This takes scenario No. 2 and flips Sen. Rubio and Mr. Kasich. Florida is another general election prize, and a win for Sen. Rubio would keep a sizeable number of delegates away from Mr. Trump.
But while Mr. Kasich is climbing in Ohio, Sen. Rubio has endured a series of setbacks that have his campaign in serious trouble, according to the Washington Post.
“Rubio has bottomed out,” Dr. Dallek said. “That makes the Florida scenario, while still possible, less likely.”
Scenario 4: Trump loses both states
This ensures the near future of the race reflects the status quo, Dr. Dallek said. All four candidates would have more than 100 delegates. All four would continue into late March.
“If Trump lost both states that would have a major effect,” Dr. Dallek said. “If that were to happen, I think the strategy of having everybody stay in—and having three viable alternatives to Trump—then maybe there is a path to deprive him of getting to 1,237.”
