“The Obama administration has been very pleased that U.S. public opinion has been supportive of the rapprochement—more so than had been predicted.”
- Professor of Political Science and International Affairs Cynthia McClintock
Cynthia McClintock is Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University. She was President of the Latin American Studies Association in 1994-95. Also, she was a member of the Council of the American Political Science Association in 1998-2000, and served as the Chair of its Comparative Democratization Section in 2003-05.
Q: Can you briefly tell us about the relationship between the United States and Cuba over the last 50+ years?
A: Overall, relations were almost always in the deep freeze. There was a period of thaw under President Carter, but it ended due to Cuba's activism in Africa. It appeared for a few years that President Clinton would begin a rapprochement, but that didn’t happen after Cuba downed an airplane operated by a Cuban exile group in 1996.
Q: What led the Obama administration to restore relations with Cuba? Many have said the move seemed out of left field—had groundwork been building toward improving relations over a period of time?
A:There was groundwork, but it was very, very secret. At the previous Summit of the Americas in Colombia, Latin American countries had stood together to announce that they would not attend the next Summit in Panama if Cuba were not allowed to attend. This spring's Summit would have been calamitous if the Obama administration had not moved on Cuba. The Obama administration was also concerned about the plight of U.S. AID contractor Alan Gross, who was released in December after being imprisoned in Cuba for five years.
“John Kerry's expressed desire in his speech of democracy for the Cuban people, which was broadcast by Cuban TV, gave many Cubans hope.”
-Lecturer Lino Gutierrez
Lino Gutierrez is CEO of Gutierrez Global LLC, a consulting firm specializing on strategic advice for corporations interested in investing in Latin America and Europe. A retired Foreign Service Officer, he served as U.S. Ambassador to Argentina (2003-2006) and U.S. Ambassador to Nicaragua (1996-1999).
Q: Former President Fidel Castro said recently that the United States owes the island millions of dollars in damages that the embargo caused. How true is that statement? Could his rhetoric ignite animosity among Cubans and affect the progressing relationship with the U.S.?
A: Cuba has insisted that in order for full normalization to take place, the United States must turn over the U.S. base in Guantanamo Bay, pay reparations for damages allegedly caused by the embargo and U.S. policy and lift the trade and travel embargo that remains in place. Cuba has said nothing of the $1.8 billion (1960 dollars) in U.S property that was expropriated in U.S. properties in the 1960s, the return of U.S. fugitives from justice that remain on the island or the damages caused by Cuba's support of guerrillas that tried to overthrow governments in Latin America in the past decades.
Former President Fidel Castro's rhetoric is unlikely to ignite animosity among the Cuban people, who overwhelmingly support closer relations with the United States, but it may stiffen the opposition of hardliners in the government who fear closer relations with the United States may encourage those who desire change.
Q: What has the reaction to John Kerry’s visit for the embassy reopening been both on the island and in the United States?
A: His expressed desire for democracy for the Cuban people, which was broadcast by Cuban television, gave many Cubans hope. However, the fact that dissidents were not invited to the historic occasion, an act labeled by The Washington Post as “outrageous,” and the repeated appearance of vintage U.S. cars strategically placed for the cameras, added an element of frivolity that the event did not need.
Q: What’s next for the growing relationship between these two countries?
A: President Obama has asked the Republican-controlled Congress to lift the decades-old trade embargo against Cuba, but so far the Congress has not done so. With the 2016 presidential election looming and with most Republican presidential candidates opposed, it will be difficult—though not impossible—for the embargo to be lifted before the election. In the meantime, President Obama has signed executive orders that have increased the amount of remittances that can be sent to the island and allowed more travel by Americans to Cuba. The key question is whether Cuba will be willing to create a democratic space for regime opponents on the island, since as Secretary Kerry reminded recently, the normalization process is a two-way street.