The Republican Party is likely to take control of the Senate on Tuesday, though how many seats the GOP picks up is still a little murky.
“The math is very favorable for them, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Republicans do very well and it’s a 52-48 or 53-47 Senate,” said Matthew Dallek, assistant professor of political management in the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management. “There’s no guarantee of anything in these close races but if the Democrats were somehow able to hold the Senate it would be a big surprise.”
The aggregate polling site FiveThirtyEight agrees with Dr. Dallek, giving Republicans better than a 70 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate, with the most likely outcome being a 53-47 split of Congress’ upper chamber in favor of the GOP.
Still, at least a half-dozen races are expected to be close enough to build some suspense. George Washington Today’s James Irwin sat down with Dr. Dallek to discuss the major storylines entering the final hours of campaign season, and identified five races worth watching on Election Day.
Kansas
Democrat Chad Taylor withdrew from the race in early September, leaving incumbent Republican Pat Roberts and independent candidate Greg Orman. Sen. Roberts has held the seat since 1997. Mr. Orman, an entrepreneur, has stated he will seek to caucus with the party in the majority. The race is a virtual dead heat according to FiveThirtyEight.
Dallek: Orman is running a strong campaign against what has become a deeply unpopular incumbent. Roberts has been accused of not really living in the state and losing touch with the voters. You have an incredibly controversial governor, Republican Sam Brownback, who has put in place some very conservative policies—including a steep income tax cut that has created some economic problems for the state. That’s created an opening for a guy like Orman. Now, if Orman wins, his life gets more complicated. He has to figure out who he’s going to caucus with and how he’s going to vote on particular issues. But all of this makes for one of the most interesting Senate races.
Georgia
Democrat Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), and Republican David Perdue, who has served as the CEO of Dollar General, are vying for the seat occupied by retiring Republican Saxby Chambliss.
Dallek: Nunn has attacked Perdue along the lines of how President Obama attacked Mitt Romney—as this outsourcer, this “vulture” capitalist who has been effective at shedding jobs in the U.S. instead of creating them. This line of attack seems to have gotten some traction in the state. On top of that, Nunn’s father is regarded as an expert on national security and foreign policy. That doesn’t guarantee anything but it gives her some traction in a state where a Democrat really wouldn’t otherwise have any.
Colorado and Iowa
Two states that helped put and keep Barack Obama in the White House are on the list of states the Democrats are in danger of losing in 2014. Colorado and Iowa are considered “purple” states (President Obama won both in 2008 and 2012), but Democrats—incumbent Sen. Mark Udall (Colorado) and Rep. Bruce Braley (Iowa)—are trailing in the polls entering Election Day.
Dallek: The fact the Democrats are struggling in these states indicates what kind of year it’s been for them. In Colorado, [Republican candidate] Cory Gardner has used this basket of issues around national security and public safety to link Udall to President Obama. I think what you are seeing in Iowa and Colorado are the effects of President Obama’s low poll ratings and the cumulative effect of the botched healthcare rollout, the VA scandal, problems with the Secret Service, Ebola and ISIS. Iowa and Colorado are important because if the Democrats were going to have a decent political year, they would be doing better there.
Louisiana
In a race that features a pair of Republican challengers—Bill Cassidy and Rob Maness—incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu has been polling beneath the 50 percent mark. The race may end up in a December run-off between Sen. Landrieu and Rep. Cassidy.
Dallek: It’s always a little strange when after the election the Senate reconvenes and you don’t know who the senator is going to be for a particular state. Adding to the intrigue a little bit is the potential that the seat could determine who has the majority—that’s not impossible or unthinkable, though it seems unlikely given how well Republicans are doing. Landrieu is in a very tough re-election race and is likely to lose even if she gets to a run-off. But, if there’s a single race and the national parties are willing to put in a lot of money, it makes for an interesting scenario.
