President Obama’s 2012 State of the Union address, scheduled for tomorrow at 9 p.m., will likely include the policy prescriptions and calls to action that are generally staples of such speeches, said several GW faculty experts. But because 2012 is an election year, the address may also touch on facets of the president’s campaign agenda and how he wishes to define himself in the face of Republican candidates’ criticism. GW Professor of Political Science Sarah Binder and Professor of Political Management Christopher Arterton talked to George Washington Today about what viewers can expect from the State of the Union—and what to watch for.
Q: What themes might President Obama focus on during this State of the Union?
Dr. Arterton: He’s likely to focus on income inequality. I heard they’ve invited a homeless teenager as a guest to sit in the balcony. The overall theme is going to be focused on what Republicans call “class warfare”—arguments about fair taxation for the wealthy and how the middle class is shrinking. I think there will be lots of policy proposals, too, that are hard to predict. Also, I’m sure we’ll hear something about needing to work together. I think it’ll be more of a confrontational speech than it has been before.
Dr. Binder: This speech will be an opportunity for the president to shape the agenda. But no one is expecting this Congress to do too much. This State of the Union will be focused on [President Obama’s] campaign agenda. It will be about the economy and the creation of jobs, and he will argue that the way his administration has done it so far is the way to go. He’ll talk about payroll tax cuts and his job-creation agenda, but no one has any big expectation that Congress will do anything beyond extending the payroll tax cut. One question is whether he’ll shy away from the topic of deficit reduction. He may duck that, and focus on a positive agenda for protecting and promoting the middle class.
Q: How are State of the Union speeches during election years different than speeches during other years?
Dr. Binder: Keep in mind where we are in presidential time—this is the fourth year of either the president’s only term or his first term. Members are looking at their own re-election, and the opposition party wants to retake the White House. The agenda for the president is really tough—he just doesn’t have that much capital at this point. All eyes are looking toward the future and the 2012 election.
And since the Republicans have taken to the airwaves during the recent debates, the president now has an incentive to craft his own narrative and counter what they have said. The timing is bad for new legislative initiatives, but very good for campaign narratives and for [President Obama] to define himself before the Republicans go much further in doing that.
Q: Do you think this State of the Union address will provide the impetus for significant congressional action?
Dr. Arterton: I think the White House has declared that there’s a must-pass piece of legislation, and that’s extending unemployment benefits and the two-month ticking bomb of tax withholding. President Obama will argue that needs to be addressed. If the White House says this is the last must-pass piece of legislation for now, that means that [the administration] is looking forward to a fight on that issue, to sound the chime that Republicans won’t allow taxes on the wealthy and are defending the business class. Then, everything shifts to campaign mode.
Q: What other things should viewers of the State of the Union watch for?
Dr. Binder: There’s always an eye toward the degree of bipartisanship that exists. At the last State of the Union, there were Republicans and Democrats sitting with people from across the aisle. There’s always a fair amount of pomp and circumstance. But don’t expect too much new here—watch and see how Republicans react and how much they engage with the president’s arguments, and how much they turn their noses up and stay seated.
Dr. Arterton: I don’t think we’ll get anyone shouting “You lie!” this time. I have not heard this year whether they’ll be doing that bipartisan seating thing again. I think this will be a bit more edgy of a speech than President Obama has given in the past. One will want to watch how the Republican caucus acts: when they stand and applaud, and when they don’t. We’ll hear some reference to having killed Osama bin Laden, and that’ll bring people to their feet. But there will be lots of times when President Obama says something, and then when the cameras pull back, you’ll see that half the body is still sitting.