By Ruth Steinhardt
“Failure is always an option” for alliances trying to make strategic decisions in an increasingly interdependent world, NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Transformation Denis Mercier said Monday.
“It is impossible in this complexity to comprehend all possible outcomes,” Mr. Mercier told an audience at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. “That makes surprise absolutely possible, decision-making based on imperfect information commonplace...and resilience an absolute necessity.”
Elliott School Dean Reuben E. Brigety introduced Mr. Mercier and moderated the question session following his speech.
“The NATO alliance is a cornerstone of U.S. and international security and we are proud of the strong ties that exist between the George Washington University’s Elliott School and NATO,” Mr. Brigety said.
As NATO’s supreme allied commander for transformation, Mr. Mercier is responsible for leading military transformation of alliance forces and capabilities. That is a difficult task in a world where threats may be non-physical, as in the case of cybercrime, or may appear in the form of non-state actors or even inanimate forces like global warming, he said.
Strategic awareness for NATO has also taken on a new meaning in a world where regions are dependent on and affected by each other beyond geographic boundaries, Mr. Mercier said.
“Due to the interrelation of actors and threats, [crises are] not limited to a specific area,” he said. “In NATO in the past we may have focused very much on the North Atlantic area, but regarding strategic awareness we need to have a global view. What happens in Africa, what happens in Asia, will influence the stability of our region.”
As an example, he cited crises in the Middle East that have set off migration crises in Europe and North America.
“Migrations are not a cause of the problem, they are the consequence,” Mr. Mercier said. “That’s why there is huge value in continuing to work on what we call projecting stability.”
After the talk, Mr. Mercier took questions from the audience—many of whom were Elliott School students—on subjects ranging from the possible alignment of Sweden and Finland with NATO to Russia’s annexation of the Crimea.
“Russia is not an enemy, but it is a potential threat” to NATO, Mr. Mercier said. “We need to continue the dialogue with Russia.”
Mr. Mercier also took a question on the proliferation of anti-NATO sentiment, which President Donald Trump embraced during his campaign. He has since softened his stance.
“We need NATO nations to be willing to describe to their populations the importance and value of NATO,” Mr. Mercier said.
Above all, Mr. Mercier said, the alliance will need to strengthen its commitment to member nations while also working with its partners around the world.
“The center of gravity for NATO is to ensure that all nations share the same view and all nations commit themselves to help the others,” he said.
