GW Battleground Poll Offers Insight into 2010 Elections

Economy, health care, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and deficit top list of voter concerns.

October 14, 2010

Polled nationwide Dec. 6-9, the voters shared opinions on a number of political topics, including the 2010 congressional elections, President Barack Obama and health care.

First conducted in 1991, GW’s Battleground Poll has accurately portrayed the political climate through four presidential and three mid-term election cycles. The surveys offer the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle—something unique in the industry. The bipartisan poll is sponsored by GW’s Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM) and is developed by research firms Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group.

“The GW Battleground Poll continues to be a highly accurate measurement of American public opinion,” says GSPM Dean Christopher Arterton. “The latest GW Battleground poll shows that 2010 congressional elections are shaping up to be pivotal for Democrats and Republicans.”

According to the poll, 56 percent of voters believe that the country is on the wrong track. Looking ahead to the 2010 congressional elections, the Republican Party now enjoys a two point advantage on the generic congressional ballot; however, voters are closely divided on their preference for a divided government—where Congress and the president are of two different parties—or for a unified government by 41 to 38 percent. In addition, 68 percent of voters disapprove of the job performance of Congress, an 11 point increase since the last Battleground survey was conducted in July.

“The political landscape continues to deteriorate for President Obama and the Democrats in Congress,” says President and CEO of The Tarrance Group Ed Goeas. “No matter which direction you look--vote intensity, generic ballot, presidential job approval or issue handling, Republicans have made gains that more than even out the playing field for the 2010 elections.”

On name identification, President Obama received a 56 percent favorable rating, with Vice President Joe Biden at 49 percent and Sarah Palin at 45 percent. President Obama earned a job approval rating of 50 percent and a personal approval rating of 67 percent.

“Nearly a year into his first term, the president remains the most popular figure in Washington, though the economy is starting to take a toll on his and his party's image,” says President of Lake Research Partners Celinda Lake. “Voters are very anxious about the economy and looking for solutions that will put people back to work. Democrats can point to a number of successes, yet will ultimately be judged on whether Americans see and feel the recovery in their own communities.”

Voters also were asked to rate how well Republicans, President Obama and Congress were handling policy issues, including health care, national defense and energy independence. On the issue of health care, 41 percent said their top concern for health care reform was to lower costs, followed by health care for every American and improvement in the quality of health care services.