A bipartisan survey of 1,000 people who say they are likely to vote in the 2010 U.S. midterm elections revealed that most respondents feel strongly that the country, the president and the health reform bill are on the wrong track. But despite their frustration, respondents do not seem to agree on any Republican to replace President Barack Obama.
Of the respondents to the Politico-GW Battleground Poll, which is jointly produced by the pollsters Ed Goeas (Republican) and Celinda Lake (Democrat), 55 percent said they feel strongly that the country is on the wrong track, with 18 percent saying they feel strongly it is on the right track.
Most respondents also strongly disapproved of the job Congress had done this past year (59 percent), of the job President Obama has done since assuming office (45 percent) and of the health reform bill (41 percent, 13 percent somewhat unfavorable).
Though 44 percent of the respondents said they will vote to replace President Obama (38 percent said he deserves to be reelected), 47 percent said they approve of the president as a person. And in a run-off with several prominent Republicans, President Obama had a 39 percent strong approval rating, compared to 25 percent for the Tea Party, 23 percent for former Governor Mike Huckabee and 16 percent for former Governor Mitt Romney.
When it comes to name recognition for potential Republican presidential candidates, Mike Huckabee comes out on top, followed closely by Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich.
If given the choice between reelecting President Obama or electing Sarah Palin, 45 percent said they would definitely vote for President Obama, and 5 percent said they might vote for his reelection. Thirty-two percent said they would definitely vote for Sarah Palin, and 8 percent said they probably would.
The GW-Politico poll is unique in its presentation of separate analysis by each of the pollsters.
“After a short-lived post Labor Day surge of Democratic voter support, Republicans now hold a five-point lead on the generic congressional ballot,” said Mr. Goeas, the Republican pollster and president and CEO of The Tarrance Group.
“The wind at Republicans’ backs is more of a breeze than a gale,” countered Celinda Lake, the Democrat pollster and president of Lake Research Partners.
Chris Arterton, professor of political management, had his own bipartisan message.
“The pronounced change in voter sentiment from two short years ago should give pause to any victorious politician in 2010,” he said. “The public is hyper-anxious and their support is ephemeral.”