An overwhelming majority of American voters think the nation is on the wrong track and the economy will be a key factor in November’s elections, according to the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll.
Seventy percent of likely voters nationwide think the nation is on the wrong track. Just 21 percent say that the nation is headed in the right direction.
“Though the American public is as divided as it has been all year, as we head into the 2014 general elections the advantage among likely voters is flowing toward Republicans,” said Christopher Arterton, poll director and professor of political management in the Graduate School of Political Management. “Despite the public's antipathy toward Congress, particularly toward the Republican leadership in the House, President Obama has become a lightening rod for discontent on a number of fronts."
Strong majorities disapprove of the job the president is doing on the federal budget and spending, in foreign policy, on working with Congress and on immigration, Dr. Arterton said.
The GW Battleground Poll, conducted in partnership with The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, found that the economy weighs more heavily on the minds of American voters than gridlock in Washington. Twenty-four percent of likely voters say the economy is most likely to drive their pick for Congress, outscoring feelings about their member of Congress, President Obama or the president’s Affordable Care Act.
When weighing party choices on economic issues, the Republican Party holds a 7-point advantage with 49 percent of voters expressing more confidence in its ability to find solutions. The GOP also holds an edge on a generic congressional ballot, 46 to 42 percent.
“Republicans hold a 4-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. In states with a competitive Senate race, Republicans hold a 16-point advantage (52 to 36 percent) on this generic ballot,” said Ed Goeas, president and CEO of The Tarrance Group. “Republicans are getting stronger support on the generic ballot from ‘hard’ Republicans (93 percent) than Democrats are getting from ‘hard’ Democrats (89 percent) and ‘soft’ Republicans are voting a net 16 points stronger for the generic Republican on the ballot than ‘soft’ Democrats are voting for the generic Democrat.
All of these measures exceed where the GOP was at the same point in the 2010 election cycle, he said.
Mr. Goeas and Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners, appeared on MSNBC's Morning Joe on Wednesday to discuss poll results, which were compiled 10 weeks ahead of the midterm elections.
The poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters nationwide Aug. 24 to 28, has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. It found Democrats do have advantages in areas of public concern. Voters prefer Democrats to stand up for the middle class (52 percent) and represent middle class values (51 percent).
“While Republicans regained a narrow lead in the generic congressional trial heat, Democrats enjoy advantages among a number of electoral constituencies that are on the rise, as well as important leads on issues and dimensions of leadership central to the economic debate, including standing up for the middle class,” Ms. Lake said.
“Given voters’ continuing focus on the economy, the component pieces for Democratic wins in November lie at the ready. Democrats must first demonstrate to the electorate in vivid terms, bold policy initiatives and incisive contrasts with Republicans that they are prepared to act decisively to rebuild the middle class and the economy along with it,” she added.
Regardless of the November election results, the American electorate does not hold any politician in Washington in very high standing, according to the poll. President Obama’s job disapproval rating is 51 percent, while Congress has a 79 percent disapproval rating. A growing majority of voters (58 percent) now disapprove of the president’s handling of immigration issues. Half of voters approve of his efforts to stand up for the middle class.