East Africa Expert Analyzes South Sudan Conflict

Amb. David Shinn discusses recent violence and scheduled negotiations between leaders of Africa’s newest country.

January 6, 2014

South Sudan

By Julyssa Lopez

A bloody conflict that broke out in South Sudan on Dec. 15 has raged on for three weeks, resulting in the death and displacement of thousands of civilians. Rebels loyal to former vice president Riek Machar and government forces led by President Salva Kiir are at the center of the complicated confrontation, which has pitted members of South Sudan’s two largest ethnic communities against one another.

Leaders of the young country’s warring sides opened peace negotiations this Sunday in Ethiopia. David Shinn, former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and Burkina Faso and professorial lecturer in GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs, talked to George Washington Today about the conflict, the possibility of a cease-fire and what the situation means for a troubled Africa.

Q:  Can you discuss the issues that have resulted in conflicts between the South Sudanese government and rebel forces? What sparked the violence that escalated in December?
A:  South Sudan was experiencing internal divisions well before it became independent from Sudan in July 2011. There was an especially nasty incident in 1991 when elements of the Nuer ethnic community, the second largest in South Sudan numbering about 1.7 million persons, killed members of the Dinka ethnic group, the largest group in the country of about 4.5 million persons, in the town of Bor.

Over the past year, there has also been serious fighting between the Lou Nuer and the Murle ethnic groups. The situation worsened significantly in July last year when President Salva Kiir, a Dinka, dismissed his Nuer vice president, Riek Machar, and the entire cabinet. Following the outbreak of fighting in the capital of Juba in December, President Kiir charged that opposition elements had launched a coup led by former vice president Machar. He then arrested 11 prominent politicians, including a number of ex-ministers. Former vice president Machar escaped arrest, went into hiding and denied that he was behind a coup attempt.

The situation now is largely a fight for political power between President Kiir and former vice president Machar, although it has been compounded by ethnic issues, especially Dinka versus Nuer. But some of those opposing President Kiir are fellow Dinka and not all the Nuer support the former vice president. To some extent, this situation has spun out of control because neither President Kiir nor Dr. Machar has the ability to completely rein in their respective followers.

Q:  Peace talks between government and rebel leaders began Sunday in Ethiopia. Are these negotiations likely to result in an end to the fighting?
A:  I doubt that these talks will end the fighting in the coming weeks, although they may slow down the violence and bring it to an end in the coming months. There is just too little ability to control the situation over the short-term.

Q:  Can you talk about the toll the fighting has taken on civilians?
A:  Estimates of the number of deaths and displaced people are little more than guesswork, but it would appear that more than 1,000 people have died and perhaps 200,000 have been displaced since mid-December. Typically in these situations, civilians comprise the vast majority of those killed and injured, and nearly all of the displaced.

Q:  Secretary of State John Kerry warned both sides of South Sudan not to use peace talks as a “gimmick” at the expense of the South Sudanese people. Is the U.S. likely to become involved or address the conflict any further?
A:  The United States played an important role in South Sudan’s independence and has subsequently been the principal bilateral source of foreign assistance, both to South Sudan and in support of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in South Sudan.

In 2013, the U.S. provided more than $400 million in foreign assistance and has requested a similar amount for 2014. The United States has also been at the forefront of pressing for negotiations between the two sides and calling for the release of the 11 former members of the South Sudan government who have been arrested. U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan Donald Booth has been in the region for more than a week, working with the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development and members of the international community to achieve this end.

Except for additional military security around the American Embassy in Juba, the United States has no intention of sending troops to South Sudan—although it did support U.N. action to nearly double the size of its peacekeeping force in South Sudan. The United States will also remain a leader in providing humanitarian assistance to the people of South Sudan.

Q:  South Sudan is one of several turbulent areas in Africa right now. How do flare ups in South Sudan affect surrounding countries that are also in turmoil, like the Central African Republic?
A:  If the unrest continues in South Sudan, it will inevitably impact neighboring countries as a result of refugee flows and the ability of dissidents in those countries to take greater advantage of uncontrolled space in South Sudan. There are already serious problems in the neighboring Central African Republic that could be exacerbated by the conflict in South Sudan. But the problems could also spill into neighboring Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. There are reports that Uganda has moved troops into South Sudan to protect its citizens there. Continuing unrest could also further destabilize the uneasy situation along the Sudan-South Sudan border.