Ambassador Dennis Ross addressed George Washington community members Tuesday, highlighting recent developments across the Middle East, U.S. involvement and the importance of looking for “knowns” in a region full of uncertainties.
Speaking to a standing-room-only audience in Lindner Family Commons at GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs, Amb. Ross joked there must be a “slight interest” in the Middle East. “Hardly surprising, I suppose,” said Amb. Ross, a counselor at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who served as special assistant to President Barack Obama and special advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Tuesday’s event was sponsored by GW’s Institute for Security and Conflict Studies.
“If you think about it, when you look at where we are right now in the Middle East, the kind of changes that have taken place are the kind of changes nobody could have predicted,” he said. “So the first thing that anybody should bring to bear when talking about this issue is a very high degree of humility. So of course I’m now going to tell you everything that’s going to take place in the region without the slightest hint of humility.”
Amb. Ross discussed the transition some countries have undergone, like Egypt, in which its people are no longer “subjects” but citizens who have a voice and expectations for their country.
“The one thing to keep in mind is if you’re dealing with publics who see themselves now as citizens and not subjects, they can potentially hold governments accountable,” said Amb. Ross.
So, he added, the Muslim Brotherhood—which now maintains a strong leadership hold in Egypt—needs to deliver and live up to the expectations of its citizens.
The U.S. can help create standards of government accountability in situations such as these, Amb. Ross said. But it can’t do it alone. Leaders must work with other nations that have undergone similar transitions to effect change in Egypt, Amb. Ross said.
But while Egypt is progressing toward democracy, the situation is far different for another major player in the region, Iran, which is facing crippling sanctions and international isolation, he said.
“At the very moment that people in this part of the world are discovering their voice, the Iranian government’s approach to their own people is to squash their voice.”
Meanwhile, the “psychological gap” in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may be more profound that the actual gap in agreement, Amb. Ross proposed.
Polls are showing that a number of both Israelis and Palestinians prefer a two-state solution, but “each side is convinced that the other will not do what is necessary,” he said.
“As long as you have that type of psychological conflict, you’re not going to see leaders take big risks,” Amb. Ross said. “We’re not in the era of leaders who are prepared to take great risks. So what you’re going to see instead, I think, is more of the same.”
And the problem with the status quo, Amb. Ross said, is that, as time goes on, each side becomes more and more disbelieving that any agreement is possible. It’s necessary to find ways to keep the possibility of peace open, and to support a nonviolent solution.
Amb. Ross closed by stressing the importance of considering the knowns in the Middle East. One is the U.S.’s relationships with Israel and Turkey. “We should do more to make sure that those relationships remain on a solid footing,” he said.
So although the unknowns are greater than the knowns, Amb. Ross said, “we have an interest in promoting as much certainty as we can.”