Independent voters are more likely to support a Republican candidate on Election Day, according to the latest Politico-George Washington University Battleground Poll.
Since the last poll was taken one month ago, Republicans have gained more support from Independent voters. About 44 percent of Independent voters indicate they plan to side with the GOP, while 30 percent plan to vote for the Democrats on Nov. 2. Twenty-six percent of Independent voters remain undecided.
When asked about the upcoming midterm elections, 48 percent of Americans said they are worried about President Barack Obama and the congressional Democrats having two more years to enact their policies, while 43 percent are worried about Republicans taking control of Congress and returning to the policies under the Bush administration. Additionally, 62 percent of those polled have less faith in government now than they did two years ago.
"The sexy story of the campaign is the emergence of the Tea Party,” said Jim VandeHei, executive editor and co-founder of Politico. “But the most important story is the swing of independent voters away from President Obama and Democrats. This poll shows Independents - just like conservatives - have lost faith in government, oppose the health care law and appear ready to defeat a large number of Democrats."
Forty-two percent of those polled strongly disapprove of the job President Obama is doing. However, his personal approval rating remains higher at 65 percent. If the 2012 presidential election were held today, 48 percent of those polled would vote for the Republican candidate, versus 42 percent who would vote for President Obama. The poll also found that 64 percent of Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.
“As we enter the final 10 days of the 2010 election, the concerns of likely voters are clearly a problem for President Obama and the congressional Democrats moving forward as they cannot change their identity. They cannot escape blame for the disastrous economic policies of the past two years, and they cannot go back in time to curb the excessive and reckless spending of the past two years,” said Ed Goeas, president and chief executive officer of The Tarrance Group. “The stage is set, and it is hard to see much, if anything, that can be done to change it over the next 10 days.”
This Politico-George Washington University Battleground Poll surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide Oct. 17-20. The poll, which yields a margin of error of + 3.1 percent, is a nationally recognized, bipartisan series of surveys conducted by Mr. Goeas, a Republican pollster, and Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster with Lake Research Partners. GW became a sponsor of the Battleground Poll in 2004, and Politico became a joint partner last month. The GW Global Media Institute, affiliated with both the Graduate School of Political Management and the School of Media and Public Affairs, serves as the university’s administrative home for the partnership. The Estelle and Marvin Gelman Library houses the data archive of the survey results dating back more than two decades.
“‘Hope and change’ has crashed into the economic realities,” said Chris Arterton, a GSPM professor of political management. “Unless some drastic event shakes up the present dynamics, we will be headed into what the Japanese would call a ‘twisted’ Congress, with the House under Republican leadership and the Senate run by the Democrats. A recipe for either moderate compromises or, more likely, stalemate.”
When asked which party has been more specific this year in proposing policies and solutions for our nation’s problems, 42 percent said Democrats and 39 percent said Republicans. Additionally, the poll found that 39 percent of Americans believe congressional Republicans have done the most negative campaigning this year, while 28 percent believe congressional Democrats have.
“While Republicans have an advantage in overall enthusiasm and a lead on the generic ballot, voters are far from embracing their agenda,” said Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners. “In fact, some of the advantage Republicans have derives from their greater unanimity and enthusiasm on issues. Democrats, especially as individual candidates, can make gains among the critical swing voters by drawing clear distinctions on the economy, jobs and social security. Drawing a much clearer choice on these issues energizes the base and pulls swing voters, especially in the critical Midwest, and among the key swing voters -- independent women.”