A coin flip. A toss-up. A tie. From one moment to the next and despite a slew of polls, the outcome of the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains uncertain, with several national and statewide polls showing virtual ties or results within the margin of error.
Still, there are plenty of factors for political analysts to weigh in prognostications—including abortion and reproductive rights, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, immigration, the economy and the role of misinformation in the media. Columbian College of Arts and Sciences (CCAS) Dean Paul Wahlbeck’s third and final in a series of election conversations invited a panel of CCAS faculty to bring their expertise to the fore in addressing the critical issues facing the United States and the world as Election Day grows closer.
With the Nov. 5 election four days away, Wahlbeck asked Danny Hayes, professor of political science, Peter Loge, School of Media and Public Affairs director and associate professor of media and public affairs, and Jasmine Smith, assistant professor of political science, what could happen over the next several days and where things stand in the polls.
“If someone tells you with a great deal of certainty they know who is going to win the election, they’re probably lying to you,” Hayes said. “It is hard to tell who is going to win. The country is quite polarized by bipartisanship.”
Though Harris has at times seemed to have an advantage, Hayes said, that has changed in the past month, primarily because of the electoral college and current polls in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia, where both candidates have campaigned heavily.
“You could have a situation where the polls are off, and one candidate wins somewhat comfortably,” said Hayes. “They could be off in favor of Trump as they were in 2016, 2020. They could be off in favor of Harris as they were in 2022.”
The Supreme Court’s ruling on Dobbs that sent abortion rights back to the states to decide could make a difference in the race. Hayes said the September GW political poll showed about 38% of Republicans expressed support for abortion rights beyond saving the life of the mother, meaning they believe it should be legal in other circumstances, a position more commonly associated with Democrats. It is an issue Harris has tried to capitalize on in much the same way that Trump has focused on immigration.
“In a race this close, where everything matters, everything matters,” Loge said. “We know that abortion motivates voters on the left and the right. It has over time. It has driven some to the Republicans and some to the Democrats. We know it helped change the 2022 midterms” in favor of the Democrats.
With about 50 million voters having already cast their ballots, Wahlbeck asked if the early votes provided any evidence of the way things were going. Hayes said early voting was at levels comparable to 2020. More Republicans have cast early ballots this time, which could be an ominous sign for Democrats, Hayes said, unless they are voters who otherwise would have voted on Election Day.
Smith said voter turnout will decide the outcome. “Both candidates are [having] to focus on getting the voters that are either undecided or persuadable or not as likely to turn out in other elections to turn out in this election,” she said.
The panel also discussed the evolving role that media plays in presidential elections and campaigns, noting that the news media impact has diminished somewhat as voters have more choices and new sources from which to get information.
“It’s harder for media to have an impact on the outcome of the election,” Hayes said. “They try to report the news as they see it. They try to provide coverage to help people understand the implications of the election, but they’ve seen their audiences shrink.”
Though Harris used TikTok to reach younger voters, Hayes said, the GW poll showed support increased for Democrats after Biden stepped down as much among nonsocial media users as among users of social media. By the same token, misinformation on the part of Trump, for example, charging that Haitian immigrants are eating people’s pets, probably will not change voters’ minds or make them vote for Harris.
What about the criminal charges against the former president? It may have sold some T-shirts, Loge said, but did not change poll numbers very much. “It was a definitional issue,” he said, with Trump creating a narrative of him fighting back political prosecutions.
“I’m not sure it was surprising that Trump has been in court since he has been for much of his career,” Loge said. “Had it been Biden or Harris that would have been surprising.”
The panelists said they were on the lookout for a realignment of voters, a shift in blue-collar workers and Black men to the Republican Party, though Smith said she had doubts about there being a realignment of Black male voters.
While most Americans take little interest in international issues, are only vaguely aware of, say, the isolationism debate or concerned about Ukraine, the situation in Gaza with Israel is problematic for Democrats, mainly because of the electoral college, Hayes said, “disrupting and creating a cleavage in the Democrats' blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
As with the abortion issue, Smith noted, Gaza has created cross pressures. “People that are already going to turn out to vote because everything is about partisanship, might be persuaded to vote for the other party based on this issue…or not turn out at all,” Smith said.
