Election season is a distant memory, the new Congress has been sworn in and with Tuesday's State of the Union address, the fourth quarter of Barack Obama's presidency has begun.
It was, perhaps, the most memorable State of the Union of his tenure, said Matt Dallek, assistant professor in the Graduate School of Political Management.
“There was a very strong, memorable theme: that America, after 15 years of hardship, is in a better place,” Dr. Dallek said. “In a sense that is a position that tees up an argument that the country has come a long way, so why would you want to turn back? It was a powerful speech in that sense.”
George Washington Today's James Irwin spoke with Dr. Dallek about the president's speech, the Republican rebuttal from Sen. Joni Ernst (Iowa) and whether the evening provides a glimpse of what to expect from the final two years of the Obama presidency.
‘On the offensive’
The Obama administration rolled out several of his State of the Union policy points in advance of Tuesday’s speech, including making community college free and providing guaranteed sick leave for workers. It allowed the president to bypass the laborious, clunky language of getting bogged down on one particular issue during the speech. His rising approval numbers and the improving economy have given him a boost, Dr. Dallek said.
“He clearly was going on the offensive,” Dr. Dallek said. “His approval ratings are heading in the right direction not only on the heels of good economic news, but also in the wake of his aggressive actions on immigration and Cuba and a climate change agreement with China, even after losing so many seats in the midterms.”
Positions of strength
The president, Dr. Dallek said, appeared eager to debate the path to a stronger middle class. He spent the first half of the speech on domestic issues and opened with a list of economic accomplishments, including the falling unemployment rate and increasing U.S. energy production. At times, he turned to the type of soaring, uniting oratory reminiscent of his 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.
Both President Obama and the Republican Congress—which has its largest majority in the House of Representatives since World War II and a 54-46 advantage in the Senate—believe themselves to be in positions of strength, Dr. Dallek said (the Republicans because of their victory in the midterm elections, and the president because of the improving economy and his rising approval numbers). That will make compromise difficult on several State of the Union policy points, including childcare, changes to the tax code and a minimum wage increase.
“Take taxes: Obama’s proposal essentially is to impose $320 billion of changes to the tax code that will hit the top 1 percent and take that money and use it to invest in the middle class and working poor, through education and community college and childcare,” Dr. Dallek said. “The Republicans want to turn the page, too, but they want to turn it in a different direction. They don’t think raising taxes on anybody is a way to do it, and what’s better is to have less government and fewer regulations and empower individuals to create economic opportunity.
“That is a stark, ideological divide. I don’t see how any president or any Congress bridges that chasm.”
The next two years
There are areas, including free trade authority, where the parties could come together in compromise. But the centerpiece policy points in the State of the Union—including community college, tax incentives for childcare and increases to the minimum wage—are also the most ambitious and will be the most difficult to pass, Dr. Dallek said.
Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) quickly issued a statement on both President Obama’s speech and Sen. Ernst’s rebuttal.
“It’s hard to see how these large Republican majorities turn around and agree to the tax incentive proposals,” Dr. Dallek said. “I don’t necessarily see a path to compromise, either. It’s hard to see given the level of fundamental divisions between the parties, especially on economic policy.”
