Venezuela’s Increasingly Volatile Demonstrations

Professor and Latin America expert Cynthia McClintock answers questions about the growing conflict.

March 17, 2014

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Thousands of protesters against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government took to the streets of Caracas in early January, agitated by alarming crime rates and a dwindling economy. Led primarily by students and politician Leopoldo Lopez, the opposition has faced hostility from government security forces and supporters of Mr. Maduro’s policies. Clashes between the two groups have become more and more violent in the past few months—unmasking a deeply divided country and unrest that shows no signs of stopping.
 
Cynthia McClintock, professor of political science and international affairs at the George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, is a scholar of Latin American studies who has written extensively about democracy and politics in the region. In an interview with George Washington Today, Dr. McClintock explained what has caused the country’s strife and how the rest of the world may respond if the situation continues to intensify.
 
Q: Can you describe the political context that sparked the protests against the Venezuelan government? 
A: Hugo Chávez governed Venezuela from 1998 until his death. He was freely and fairly elected in 1998 but he was a fiery outsider and quickly allied with the Castros in Cuba. Mr. Chávez benefited from skyrocketing oil prices and he was able to channel the new revenues into programs benefiting Venezuela's poor. During elections in 2000, 2006 and 2012, he was charged with skewing the electoral playing field; the opposition believed that Mr. Chávez regularly violated political rights. 
 
After Mr. Chávez's death, new elections were held in 2013 and claimed to be won by Mr. Chávez's anointed successor, Mr. Maduro. Mr. Maduro lacks Mr. Chávez’s charisma, and he has not enjoyed the kind of support that Mr. Chávez did. The opposition charged that the election was fraudulent. The intense polarization between the government and the opposition is exacerbated by severe economic mismanagement: Inflation is very high, and there are dire shortages of food staples. Additionally, crime is rampant.
 
Q: Many of the protesters have been students. Can you talk about why this particular demographic has risen up? 
A: Historically in Latin America (and in the U.S.—remember the 1960s!), students are at the forefront of protests against governments. The ultimate goal of protesters is the departure of Mr. Maduro. This could come about through new elections or his resignation. 
 
Q: Who is Leopoldo Lopez, and what role has he played in the demonstrations? 
A: Mr. Lopez is a former mayor of Caracas. He is Harvard educated and charismatic and, in many Venezuelans’ views, could be the next president. Among the various opposition groups, he is one of the hardliners. His bold leadership led to his recent imprisonment. This could be an advantage in the future if he is seen as a martyr, but, of course, it is risky.
 
Q: Is the U.S. likely to become involved in the conflict? 
A: The risk of violence has been severe in Venezuela for several years, and the Obama administration has stayed on the sidelines. With everything else on its plate, I doubt the Obama administration will become directly involved. But it is probably trying to pressure countries such as Brazil to take a stand. Also, non-governmental groups with a positive track record in Venezuela—such as the Carter Center, founded by Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter to fight conflict, poverty and oppression around the world—could become engaged, especially if violence worsens.
 
Q: Is either side seeing support from other countries in South America?  
A: Not at this time. South American countries traditionally prioritize sovereignty, and they fear double standards by the U.S. and international organizations. But if violence worsens, and especially if there is a split in Venezuela's military, they will take sides. Countries close to the U.S., like Mexico, Colombia and Peru, are likely to side with the opposition and those close to the Venezuelan government, including Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Cuba, with the government. The key question will be what moderate-left countries, like Brazil and Chile, do.