Candidates Remain Tied in POLITICO-GW Battleground Poll

The presidential race is close for the fourth consecutive week in latest poll.

October 15, 2012

Politico/The George Washington University Battleground Poll with graphical representation of donkey and elephant

Despite a presidential debate, a jobs report and unprecedented amounts of advertising, President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney remain statistically tied at 49 and 48 percent respectively, according to a new POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll released today.

Over the past month, the Battleground Poll has found Obama and Romney essentially tied at 49 to 48 percent (Oct. 4), 49 to 47 percent (Sept. 27) and 50 to 47 percent (Sept. 20); all within the 3 percent margin of error. With 81 percent of voters saying they will not consider changing their vote, the tie may not break anytime soon.

“With only three weeks of campaigning and two presidential debates left, this race is narrowing down to a 50-50 contest on all levels," said Christopher Arterton, professor of political management. “That will make turnout all the more critical as the campaigns head into election day.” 

Despite how they personally plan to vote, 53 percent of Americans expect Obama to win the election. This is an eight point change from last week when 61 percent expected Obama to win. This shift represents increased optimism among Republicans.

Key indicators in voter enthusiasm were measured in the latest poll. Seventy-nine percent said they are extremely likely to vote, with 83 percent of Republicans, 78 percent of Democrats and 74 percent of Independents say they are extremely likely to vote. Of those “extremely likely” to vote, Romney is ahead 51 to 47 percent. Seventeen percent said they are “very likely” to vote. Obama is ahead with this group 54 to 41 percent.

Obama has a 53 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable rating. Obama’s favorability has remained consistent in the past several weeks. The president’s job approval rating is 50 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. Fifty-one percent of Americans view Romney favorably compared to 44 percent who view him unfavorably. This is a four point change from last week when Romney had an even 47/47 percent favorable/unfavorable rating.

“As late as our Sept. 27 Battleground Poll, Romney had an image that was upside down with his unfavorable image exceeding his favorable image by two points and with just six percent of the electorate yet to develop an impression of him,” said Ed Goeas, Republican pollster and president/CEO of The Tarrance Group. “Converting those with an unfavorable view into holding a favorable view is one of the hardest jobs for any campaign. That Romney has done it here and now, as millions of dollars of negative ads continue to run about him, is a truly remarkable accomplishment.”

Romney leads on the federal budget and spending (54 to 42 percent). Obama leads on sharing values (50 to 46 percent), foreign policy (49 to 45 percent), Medicare (52 to 43 percent) and standing up for the middle class (54 to 42 percent). The candidates remain statistically tied on the economy (50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama), jobs (49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama), taxes (49 for Obama and 47 percent for Romney) and the ability to get things done (48 percent for Romney and 45 percent for Obama).

“President Barack Obama has a solid foundation for winning the presidential race, including positive favorability and job performance ratings and advantages on key issues, including standing up for the middle class, Medicare, sharing voters’ values, foreign policy and being a strong leader,” said Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster and president of Lake Research Partners. “However, Obama must translate his substantial advantage on standing up for the middle class into a broader debate over character and leadership to halt Romney’s favorability gains, especially among women and Independents.”

As both campaigns prepare for the second presidential debate on Tuesday night, the Battleground Poll also evaluated voter response to the first debate. Seventy percent of Americans watched the first presidential debate, and 77 percent of viewers said Romney won. Of those who watched, 34 percent said the debate made them more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, and 11 percent said the debate made them more likely to vote for Barack Obama, but a majority of viewers said it made no difference on their vote. 

The POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll is a nationally recognized series of surveys conducted by Mr. Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Ms. Lake of Lake Research Partners. The George Washington University Global Media Institute, affiliated with the Graduate School of Political Management and the School of Media and Public Affairs, serves as the university’s home for the partnership. George Washington’s Gelman Library houses the data archive of the survey results dating back more than two decades.

The poll, which is distinguished from other surveys by its presentation of separate analyses from top pollsters representing both sides of the aisle, surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide Oct. 7 through Oct. 11, including a protocol for reaching mobile phone users, and yielded a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.